What to Watch - SPY Holds $74, VIX Slips Below 24 SPY LEVELS:

Support: $73.80 (overnight low) / $73.00 (prior week's floor)

Resistance: $75.00 (round number) / $75.50 (50-day moving average)

QQQ LEVELS:

Support: $71.00 (overnight low) / $70.20 (200-day MA)

Resistance: $73.00 (Monday's high) / $73.85 (prior swing high)

TODAY'S CALENDAR:
  • 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (est. 225K, prior 217K)
  • 10:30 AM ET: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage
  • No major earnings of note; focus on macro data for rate-path cues.
THE SETUP:

Equity futures are edging higher overnight after the S&P 500 closed above $741, reclaiming the key $74-level psychological zone. The VIX dropping to 23.325 suggests some fear unwinding, but it remains elevated relative to the pre-March average. The real test today comes from jobless claims-a print above 230K could reignite recession fears and pressure SPY back toward $73 support. Conversely, a sub-220K reading would reinforce the "soft landing" narrative, giving bulls a path to test $75 resistance. Volume remains thin in premarket; watch for a failed break above $74.50 on SPY as a potential short-entry trigger into the claims release.