Slowing from 2.4% in Q4 2025. Below trend but not recession territory.

Manufacturing output declined, led by autos and machinery. Industrial sector remains soft.

Big-ticket items falling. Boeing orders volatile but core capital goods also soft.

In contraction for 8th straight month. New orders sub-index is weakest component.

Barely expanding at 51.2. Services is 70% of the economy — if this dips below 50, it's a problem.

Stuck in low-inventory equilibrium. High mortgage rates lock in existing owners.

Deficit widening. Imports rising faster than exports. Strong dollar not helping exporters.

Fifth straight month of improvement. Shelter costs finally decelerating. Goods deflation continues.

Finally broke below 3%. Services decelerating. Lowest core CPI since early 2025.

The Fed's actual target. Below CPI because housing weight is lower and healthcare is measured differently.

The one that matters most. Steady progress toward 2% but last mile is slow.

Consumer spending slowing. Discretionary categories (restaurants, clothing) are soft.

Conference Board index wobbling. Inflation expectations embedded in the survey are up.

Ticking up from 3.8% six months ago. Still low historically but trend is clear.

3-month avg ~180K vs ~250K a year ago. Trend is decelerating.

Claims stabilized around 240K. Above the 210K lows of 2025 but not signaling recession.

Down from peak of 12M. Labor market coming into better balance.

FOMC held steady June 11. Powell noted progress on inflation but wants more confidence. Market pricing first cut September.

QT running at ~$60B/month. Balance sheet down ~$2T from peak. No end date announced.

Secured overnight rate right at Fed funds. No funding stress. Repo market calm.

Term premium returning. Fiscal concerns + QT = higher long-end yields despite Fed on hold.

Inversion mostly normalized. Spread to 10Y has narrowed significantly from -50bp to -25bp.

Moderate. Sub-15 is complacency, above 25 is panic. 18 is uncertain but not scared.

Weakening dollar good for multinationals and commodities. Helps exports, hurts importers.